Weather guide Monday 13th to Sunday 19th July 2015

Last weeks review: Changeable but often dry with some warm sunny spells

Showers with thunder in places last Sunday, two walkers were killed by separate lightning strikes on the tops of the Brecon Beacons around midday. Morning thunderstorms and downpours gave 20mm rain in a few hours at Milford Haven. It was a cool day over NW Wales (Aberdaron max 15.2c) but elsewhere up to the July average (Llanwnnen 19.2c, Nottingham 22.4c). Rather cloudy and breezy Monday with rain and drizzle at times, especially over WW where some places saw heavy rain (Aberdaron 23.4mm), in contrast most of the Midlands saw very little. Quite cool for WW with all the cloud and rain (Capel Curig 15.3c) but near average over the Midlands (Pershore 20.6c). Another breezy sunny intervals and showers day Tuesday, thunder for a few places, some places staying largely dry and temperatures close to or a little below average (Pershore 21.7c, Llanwnnen 19.2c) but exposed Aberdaron  (max 15.1c) was cool once more.

Cool WNW winds on Wednesday, quite a lot of cloud with some showery rain in places though as usual some place escaping dry (Pershore 20.5c, Pembrey 18.1c, Capel Curig 14.7c). A dry end to the week with sunny periods on Thursday and somewhat warmer for most (Pershore 21.9c, Llanwnnen 19.8c) although still cool sea breezes around Cardigan Bay (Aberporth 15.4c). Warm rather humid southerly winds everywhere with plentiful sunshine Friday, very warm for the Midlands at above 25c (Coleshill 26.6c, Trawsgoed 24.2c, Aberdaron 19.3c).  Cloudier with a little rain in places Saturday but also some sunny spells, especially the Midlands where it was rather warm in places (Coventry 23.3c, Llanwnnen 19.5c). Quite wet during Saturday night for much of Wales (Capel Curig 24mm in 24 hours to 0600) with some light rain for the Midlands.

The week ahead: Changeable with some rain at times; drier midweek and warm Thursday into Friday

There was further rain in places during Sunday morning, but a mostly dry afternoon to come with sunny intervals, although still the odd shower for a few spots, highs 18 to 22c with light winds. A mostly dry night follows no lower than 10c. Further rain fronts arriving into Wales by dawn Monday so a rather wet start to the day here, this rain also affecting the Midlands by the mid to late morning period, some heavy bursts of rain in places. The rain tends to become more intermittent on Monday afternoon but it stays mostly cloudy, but still the occasional burst of rain or drizzle. Highs Monday again in the 18 to 22c bracket, although cooler for wetter Snowdonia more like 16 c here. Fronts remain strung out across the south of the UK throughout Monday night and Tuesday with pulses of wet weather running along these. So for some areas a wet period to come through Monday and Tuesday, 25 to 50mm quite likely to be collected within 36 hours, but quite localised these higher amounts. The exact positioning of the fronts cannot however be foretold other than to say Tuesday is another largely overcast day with rain at times, this heavy in places. Maxima Tuesday a cool 16 to 18c WW, and 20 to 22c Midlands where some brighter intervals are possible. The rain is expected to be dying out/ clearing away come Tuesday night.

A tenuous ridge of high pressure then attempts to settle things down for the midweek period, so Wednesday and Thursday seeing plenty of dry weather with warm sunny spells. Highs Wednesday 18 to 22c, although even at this stage frontal remnants could be setting off a few sharp afternoon showers for the Midlands. Wednesday night looks a cool one with clear periods, getting down to 5c in places. Thursday, and with the next Atlantic system approaching Ireland some warm humid air should be moving up from the south. The strength of this warm plume still to be decided but 26c is possible over the Midlands and with 21 to 24c likely more widely on Thursday afternoon. Some thundery rain could though be moving into Wales come Thursday evening and more likely overnight. Thursday night likely to be warm and sticky with rain at times and thunder or lightning in places, temperatures no lower than 15 to 17c.

Further rain at times is likely during Friday morning as a low crosses Scotland, still a chance of thunder for the Midlands especially if the sun breaks through to and acts to trigger off a storm. It could be another warm day too for the Midlands, possibly up to 25c across the East Midlands, but a cold front should be clearing the sticky air from WW during Friday morning and a cooler day here with some showers about during the afternoon, highs here more like 17 to 20c but there should be some sunny intervals pm. Next weekend looks another inauspicious and mixed one as Summer 2015 plods on with its mediocrity! Saturday at this stage looking cool but bright with some showers while Sunday is harder to guess but still a chance of rain or showers for some of us.