Sunday, 19 July 2015

Weather guide Monday 20th to Sunday 26th July 2015

Last weeks review: Changeable with some rain at times but became mostly dry

Some showery rain for a time last Sunday, not much for most but with localised downpours such as at Pershore, Worc (19mm) while not so far away Hereford only had 1.2mm, and lightning was seen from Rugby and Warwick. Pershore was also the warmest spot in our regions as well as wettest (24.4c). Cloudy with some rain for a time on Monday, quite cool for much of damp West Wales (Aberdaron 16.3c, Llanwnnen 17.4c) but with near normal temperatures Midlands and for some coastal areas (Pershore 21.7c, Mona 18.7c). Gogerddan near Aberystwyth was the wettest place officially in the UK last Monday with a fall of 18.6mm, although a PWS (Personal Weather Station) near Machynlleth recorded around 30mm. There was further occasional patchy rain and drizzle for many of us during Tuesday but with dry periods too, and as ever some spots escaped dry. Tuesday also a mostly cloudy humid day with temperatures a touch below average, although rather warm for a few spots in NW Wales where, just beyond the rain front, it was a dry day with sunny spells (Porthmadog 20.8c, Hereford 20.7c,) but cool for southern Cardigan Bay coasts with all the damp (Aberporth 14.9c).

Dry and largely sunny then on Wednesday once the lingering cloud broke over the Midlands but a fresher feeling day, although with temperatures a touch higher over south Wales and most of the Midlands (Pershore 21.4c, Pembrey Sands 19.4c), but cooler for north and west Wales (Aberdaron 15.2c). Cool on Wednesday night down to just 3.7c at Capel Curig and 4.1c Shobdon (Herefordshire) with many rural parts below 7c (an average July night would be 11 to 13c inland). Thursday was the warmest day of the week (Pershore 24.8c, Porthmadog 24.6c) as another short-lived plume of warmth arrived from the south, some showers in places especially Pembrokeshire in the afternoon and where it was cooler as a result (Milford Haven max 18.6c)  A few showers over the Midlands during the evening but for many it stayed largely dry although it was not an especially sunny day (41.4c reached in central France on Thursday). Thursday night very mild, only falling to 16.8c at Hereford then showers for a few spots Friday but largely dry again and a cooler, fresher quite windy day (Pershore 22.0c, Llanwnnen 19.7c). Dry but breezy with sunny spells and around average temperatures Saturday (Hereford 22.3c, Llanwnnen 20.2c, Mumbles 19.5c).

The week ahead: Unsettled, breezy and often rather cool; dry, brighter intervals too

A splash of rain for most places Saturday night into this Sunday morning (it cleared WW soon after dawn) and with further occasional splashes of rain this week to keep the gardens satisfied although not so welcome for those on holiday! Worth bearing in mind that even rather below average temperatures in the Summer will feel pleasant enough given a sunny interval, so not all doom and gloom this week although when cloudy and breezy it will be feeling cool. Mostly dry this afternoon with sunny spells highs in the familiar Summer 2015 range of 18 to 22c, feeling pleasant enough although quite breezy again. Clear periods and cool tonight as low as 5c in some rural spots although it will have clouded over across SW Wales by dawn as further weather fronts arrive for Monday.  A cloudy morning with mostly light rain and drizzle at times for WW this spreading to the Midlands afternoon, although some places here stay mostly dry. Some brighter intervals raising temperatures to 23c for parts of the Midlands as we will be in a warm sector, while for WW the rain clears to a few showers and late sunny intervals, highs more like 18 to 20c here. Quite a windy day too as well as damp at times with clear spells and just the odd shower during Monday night.

Quite a lot of cloud with some sunny intervals and showers (mostly light) on Tuesday, quite windy again, highs a cool 15 to 18c WW and 19 to 21c Midlands. Some places will miss the showers. Mostly dry overnight no lower than 9c. Rather unsettled again Wednesday, after a mostly dry and bright morning it turns showery with a possible longer spell of rain during the afternoon or evening, and some of this rain could be heavy in places. Maxima a cool 15 to 18c WW and around 20c Midlands. A cool NW flow for Thursday, sunny intervals and a few showers, highs below average again at 16 to 20c (highest Midlands). Clear periods and a chilly night follows down as low as 5c in the countryside. Friday may see a ridge and offers the best chance of pleasant dry weather with sunny spells, although some models still showing some showers about, so not all of us entirely dry perhaps. Maxima still disappointing in the 16 to 20c range as the air mass is distinctly cool by the end of the week. Another cool night to follow, not far off a ground frost even for some rural spots, while temperatures at 4 feet as low as 4c.

Next weekend still looking below average but besides that the outlook less certain. Best stab is another rather mixed weekend, there should be plenty of generally dry weather with some sunshine (especially Saturday) while Sunday seems the most likely day for some rain to arrive with the potential of a wet day. The models still not showing any proper dry, warm settled Summery weather out into early August even.













Sunday, 12 July 2015

Weather guide Monday 13th to Sunday 19th July 2015

Last weeks review: Changeable but often dry with some warm sunny spells

Showers with thunder in places last Sunday, two walkers were killed by separate lightning strikes on the tops of the Brecon Beacons around midday. Morning thunderstorms and downpours gave 20mm rain in a few hours at Milford Haven. It was a cool day over NW Wales (Aberdaron max 15.2c) but elsewhere up to the July average (Llanwnnen 19.2c, Nottingham 22.4c). Rather cloudy and breezy Monday with rain and drizzle at times, especially over WW where some places saw heavy rain (Aberdaron 23.4mm), in contrast most of the Midlands saw very little. Quite cool for WW with all the cloud and rain (Capel Curig 15.3c) but near average over the Midlands (Pershore 20.6c). Another breezy sunny intervals and showers day Tuesday, thunder for a few places, some places staying largely dry and temperatures close to or a little below average (Pershore 21.7c, Llanwnnen 19.2c) but exposed Aberdaron  (max 15.1c) was cool once more.

Cool WNW winds on Wednesday, quite a lot of cloud with some showery rain in places though as usual some place escaping dry (Pershore 20.5c, Pembrey 18.1c, Capel Curig 14.7c). A dry end to the week with sunny periods on Thursday and somewhat warmer for most (Pershore 21.9c, Llanwnnen 19.8c) although still cool sea breezes around Cardigan Bay (Aberporth 15.4c). Warm rather humid southerly winds everywhere with plentiful sunshine Friday, very warm for the Midlands at above 25c (Coleshill 26.6c, Trawsgoed 24.2c, Aberdaron 19.3c).  Cloudier with a little rain in places Saturday but also some sunny spells, especially the Midlands where it was rather warm in places (Coventry 23.3c, Llanwnnen 19.5c). Quite wet during Saturday night for much of Wales (Capel Curig 24mm in 24 hours to 0600) with some light rain for the Midlands.

The week ahead: Changeable with some rain at times; drier midweek and warm Thursday into Friday

There was further rain in places during Sunday morning, but a mostly dry afternoon to come with sunny intervals, although still the odd shower for a few spots, highs 18 to 22c with light winds. A mostly dry night follows no lower than 10c. Further rain fronts arriving into Wales by dawn Monday so a rather wet start to the day here, this rain also affecting the Midlands by the mid to late morning period, some heavy bursts of rain in places. The rain tends to become more intermittent on Monday afternoon but it stays mostly cloudy, but still the occasional burst of rain or drizzle. Highs Monday again in the 18 to 22c bracket, although cooler for wetter Snowdonia more like 16 c here. Fronts remain strung out across the south of the UK throughout Monday night and Tuesday with pulses of wet weather running along these. So for some areas a wet period to come through Monday and Tuesday, 25 to 50mm quite likely to be collected within 36 hours, but quite localised these higher amounts. The exact positioning of the fronts cannot however be foretold other than to say Tuesday is another largely overcast day with rain at times, this heavy in places. Maxima Tuesday a cool 16 to 18c WW, and 20 to 22c Midlands where some brighter intervals are possible. The rain is expected to be dying out/ clearing away come Tuesday night.

A tenuous ridge of high pressure then attempts to settle things down for the midweek period, so Wednesday and Thursday seeing plenty of dry weather with warm sunny spells. Highs Wednesday 18 to 22c, although even at this stage frontal remnants could be setting off a few sharp afternoon showers for the Midlands. Wednesday night looks a cool one with clear periods, getting down to 5c in places. Thursday, and with the next Atlantic system approaching Ireland some warm humid air should be moving up from the south. The strength of this warm plume still to be decided but 26c is possible over the Midlands and with 21 to 24c likely more widely on Thursday afternoon. Some thundery rain could though be moving into Wales come Thursday evening and more likely overnight. Thursday night likely to be warm and sticky with rain at times and thunder or lightning in places, temperatures no lower than 15 to 17c.

Further rain at times is likely during Friday morning as a low crosses Scotland, still a chance of thunder for the Midlands especially if the sun breaks through to and acts to trigger off a storm. It could be another warm day too for the Midlands, possibly up to 25c across the East Midlands, but a cold front should be clearing the sticky air from WW during Friday morning and a cooler day here with some showers about during the afternoon, highs here more like 17 to 20c but there should be some sunny intervals pm. Next weekend looks another inauspicious and mixed one as Summer 2015 plods on with its mediocrity! Saturday at this stage looking cool but bright with some showers while Sunday is harder to guess but still a chance of rain or showers for some of us.






















Sunday, 5 July 2015

Weather guide Monday 6th to Saturday 12th July 2015

Last weeks review: Generally warm and sometimes hot with some thunderstorms

Dry and warm with sunny spells Monday (Hereford 24.4c, Llanwnnen 22.0c, Trawsgoed 21.9c). Very warm and sticky across Wales Monday night most places no lower than 15c (warmest Trawsgoed min 16.5c), although parts of the Midlands did dip down to a more refreshing 10c with clearer skies here. Hot, sunny and quite humid on Tuesday, the final day of June, as the heat arrived from North Africa. Remarkably hot for June across West Wales, the hottest June day I have recorded in 10 years at this location reaching 28.8c (previous best 28c in June 2006) and even on the Welsh coast some spots topped 27c (81f)! Some max temperatures for Tuesday:

Capel Curig 26.7c, Aberdaron 25.0c, Trawsgoed 28.3c, Llanwnnen 28.8c, Aberporth 27.2c, Pembrey Sands 27.7c, Church Lawford 28.3c, Coventry 28.6c, Coleshill 29.4c, Pershore 29.9c, Little Rissington 27.9c and Hereford 28.7c.

An exceptionally warm night followed Tuesdays heat, parts of WW remained above 20c 68f all night with Gogerddan, near Aberystwyth having an overnight 'low' of 22c which was the highest minimum in the UK!  Hot again Wednesday although WW turned much cooler and cloudier with showery rain and thunderstorms in places afternoon. Very hot over the Midlands where it was mostly sunny with many places reaching 32c 90f and it was the hottest day since July 2006.  London Heathrow reached 36.7c 98f  Wednesday - the hottest ever temperature recorded in July in the UK while Paris touched 40c 104f! Some other max temperatures  Wednesday:

Nottingham 33.9c, Hinckley 33.4c, Coventry 32.9c, Wellesbourne (Warks) 33.7c, Church Lawford 32.7c, Little Rissington 32.2c, Capel Curig 27.1c, Trawsgoed 27.8c, Llanwnnen 27.7c.

Cloudier and cooler everywhere for Thursday, some rain in places from the leftovers of storms that affected Biscay and France the previous night, although parts of the Midlands stayed largely dry, and it ended up nice and sunny over WW. Best temperatures Thursday 24c in the East Midlands and back to cool levels along some coasts, Aberdaron max just 15.7c coolest of all. Thursday night refreshingly cool down as low as 5c for some rural spots. Back to more general warm sunny spells for Friday with the humidity building again during the afternoon and with even coasts joining in the warmth (Little Rissington 25.5c, Llanwnnen 24.5c, Aberporth 23.6c). Some showers and thunderstorms in places Friday night these widespread and quite severe with spectacular lightning over the central and eastern Midlands in the early hours of Saturday. There were apparently 93,000 lightning strikes over the UK during the Friday night! 22mm rain at Nottingham Friday night, but no doubt some even greater falls would have missed the rain gauge network.

Pleasant with some sunshine and quite warm Saturday, most of the Midlands above 23c (Church Lawford 25.2c, Trawsgoed & Llanwnnen 20.7c)


Remarkably hot June day at Llanwnnen max 28.8c
Hot at last in June!
Hot Wednesday

Lightning Midlands Sat 4 July 2015

June review

June was prevented from being a rather cool month by the warm spell at the end which culminated in temperatures into the 80's f and brought temperatures close to the average. At Llanwnnen we experienced a rare June air frost early on the 8th with a low of -1.0c. It was rather dry (some places had under half the monthly rainfall average) with only the Nottingham/ Leicester area wetter than normal this due to the one very wet day. Sunshine levels generally above average especially for Shropshire (236 hours at Shawbury), so not so bad a month! Some June rainfall totals with % of average where available:

Valley, Anglesey c. 20mm
Capel Curig c. 63mm
Trawsgoed c. 55mm
Llanwnnen 52.9mm 79%
Pembrey Sands c. 34mm
Milford Haven 56.6mm
Hereford 20.0mm 44%
Nottingham c. 60mm
Coleshill 34.4mm 55%
Coventry, Bablake School 38.4mm 65% = driest June since 2008 (37.2mm)
Long Lawford, Warks 37.1mm 74%
Church Lawford 42.4mm 76%
Pershore c. 25mm

The week ahead

Headline: Unsettled to midweek, then becoming drier and warmer

Sunny intervals and showers this Sunday afternoon, there has been thunder over parts of WW this morning and some thunder to come for parts of the Midlands this afternoon. Highs feeling quite warm at 19 to 22c, best East Midlands. Showers clear away this evening and a dry night down as low as 9c in the countryside. High pressure close to SE England Monday but with a low close to Ireland. The Midlands getting away with a mostly dry and rather warm day with sunny intervals bar a few light showers, but mostly cloudy with occasional rain for WW as fronts cross the region. Maxima ranging from 16c for a dull, damp and windy Snowdonia, 18c over the rest of WW and 22c for the brighter parts of the Midlands. A fresh SSW wind everywhere by evening as a cold front brings further rain across Wales this extending to the Midlands overnight, minima Monday night a mild 12 to 14c.

Rain lingers into Tuesday morning over the Midlands then a breezy day of sunny intervals and showers, some heavy and thundery, highs about the July average being 18 to 20c WW and 20c to 22c Midlands. Still a few showers during Tueday night especially Wales. Pressure is low over Scandinavia during Wednesday with cool NW winds across the UK, another day of sunny intervals and showers, some heavy and thundery driven by brisk NW winds, highs 15 to 17c WW, and 18 to 20c Midlands. Most of the showers dying out on Wednesday night with clearing skies, cool minima of 5 to 8c.

High pressure moving into southern Britain for Thursday which looks a mostly dry and bright day, best of the sunny spells for the Midlands, highs of say 19 to 22c are around average and therefore quite warm. The high perhaps edging to our east during Friday so warmer southerly winds could be wafting up, so dry with sunny spells and warm, locally very warm with maxima between 22 and 26c. Just the chance of thundery showers in places by evening. Its looking a bit of a mixed bag next weekend, there will be some dry, bright and warm weather but equally some rain or showers about, although not everywhere catching these wetter spells and certainly no washout!